IndexCalls http://indexcalls.com RSS IPB news 1.5 IndexCalls for Traders Sat, 04 Sep 2010 09:26:59 +0000enIndexCalls.com ©2005admin@indexcalls.com admin@indexcalls.com Mon, 17 Nov 2008 06:09:46 +0000 Nov 15 - 16
[attachmentid=35055]

]]> http://indexcalls.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=1831 Mon, 06 Oct 2008 01:48:18 +0000 Oct 4 - Oct 5 QUOTE(Keystone Speculator @ Oct 5 2008, 04:30 PM)
We are now seeing each and every one of these symptoms of K-wave winter."
[/right]


[attachmentid=33558]
]]> http://indexcalls.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=1783 Tue, 16 Sep 2008 05:17:35 +0000 Sept 15 [attachmentid=32982]
]]> http://indexcalls.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=1755 Thu, 29 May 2008 20:14:46 +0000 Thursday May 29 QUOTE(JeckylHeckle @ May 29 2008, 12:50 PM)
b b b b bennie and the jets
[/right]


sh sh sh sheera and the cows.

Even after today's blatant performance by BoJ, in which USSA equities went up simply because -- and only because -- BoJ crassly muscled them up, they still can't leave it alone at the end and had to come in with maintenance dose propage for the farce at the very end.

It appears that by early afternoon BoJ had jammed it enough to satisfy the G7's covenant obligations under the PigMan Rewards Program (EOM targets for tasty PigMan bonuses in reward for a month's worth of manipulation well implemented). Then, BoJ relaxed, and because USD/JPY was then permitted to drift down, it did, and because intense yen-selling in immense quantities is the one -- and only -- thing providing the funds to keep the Temple at all levitated, the Temple (and all USSA equities) came down right in lockstep with USD/JPY.

In the end, apparently the G7 NWO Plutocracy has decreed the Temple 12,650 area as some line in the sand, in the name of the war on terrism, or some other such nonsense (which really does not matter). In came a farce-maintenance-dose Sheeracowa Shove, which was enough to stop further decline. So ultimately, why did USD/JPY 105.50 have to --at all costs-- be defended through the Temple close? Because the Temple 12650 area had to be defended at all costs. Why? Who the eff knows. On second though, because BoJ sucks (see my signature line).
]]> http://indexcalls.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=1632 Fri, 16 May 2008 23:03:58 +0000 Friday May 16


The fun part is....we WILL see it down there.

Actually, they will surely discontinue reporting it, or even tracking it, before then.

People simply REFUSE to believe, to really take in, just HOW low a LOT of things are going to go...

Which leads me to make a couple observations I've been biting my tongue on for a while now...

I found Yobob's opener-noire this morning very interesting....kinda mind-catching...

It gelled my inner reflections on the 6+ years that I've been part of this group....and what's changed....and what HASN'T changed.

I still remember Pigeon (i think it was?) insisting in the strongest terms that RE prices would NEVER drop, COULD never drop, more than 15%....

And that's the issue that stuck in my mind....not the RE-prices, but this widespread refusal to ACT, refusal to even really, truly, ACCEPT what every trend said was going to happen.

Virtually every prediction made way back then by 3 or 4 of us (curiously, all 'hayseeds' it seems; e.g., myself, Yobob, Fuzz, NWD, Seattle, etc.) have come exactly true, step by step....only our predicted timing was off here and there.

(ironically, I note that this 'hayseed' appellation has been applied to a group who have all spent many years in cities, as well as being successful engineers, businessmen, phd's, attorneys, are well-read, widely traveled... ...but that's not the subject of this off-the-cuff essay.)

Yet the number of folks who've actually DONE anything at all in SIX YEARS to prepare themselves for the freaking DISASTER that's approaching like a freight-train....is near ZERO.

That's been continually fascinating to me over the past 5 years, from a sociological perspective. I've watched as the years have ticked by and...nothing. For a while I had a thing in my sig that I updated as the trend-curves steepened; "the socioeconomic trainwreck is now only half a mile off...".

Seeing the obvious intelligence in folks repeatedly overwhelmed and buried by an apparently unmasterable will-to-deny....to believe....to pretend...."da goobermint won't let things get that bad", or whatever... (but they're the ones CAUSING it! )

I don't know WHAT this mental monkey-on-his-back is....but it has kept folks sitting frozen...EXACTLY where they were six freaking years ago.

Now, over the past couple months, we've suddenly got dancers asking about firearms, and apartment-dwellers asking about sealing bags of rice.....AGAIN....just like six years ago. Remember?

Well, better late than never I guess....

But you know...."LATE" really is the operative word here...

Seriously folks....it has now gotten really REALLY late in the game.

Someone mentioned urban-riots this morning (bearman I think?)....

Yeah, I SO don't want to be in any city next summer...or even THIS summer...yes, I mean just 60-90 days from NOW. That's how fast this thing is moving.

Even if the grocery-store isn't totally trashed by the mob, how are you even going to GET to it, hmmm ???

Have you even -thought- about that trivial mundane aspect of it?

In six years, I've yet to see a single person wonder about that. What a silly, trivial, unimportant thing to bug ya about, eh?

But answer the question anyway....how ARE you going to get there?

Are you going THROUGH that mob??

I don't think so.

Examining just that one simple, prosaic, example, it becomes clear that most folks just haven't thought this through, at ALL.

They haven't THOUGHT....or perhaps, have AVOIDED thinking about it...because cool rational logic and trend-examination leads one to a set of inescapable conclusions that are just too freaking SCARY to face, aren't they?

The number-one and scariest conclusion of which is: the need to make a CHANGE.

Why, that would mean MOVING....probably CHANGING PROFESSION....but my CAREER! Oh my god!.......blah blah blah....

All those things that the herd is -deeply- conditioned against changing.....conditioned to see as FEAR-objects....conditioned to see as the ultimate in importance to your value as a human-being. What you do at the fucking stupid office...yeah, right, that's your worth as a human....Bleahh....

The veritable OCEAN of conditioning out there has bludgeoned folks into seeing CHANGE of any kind as a FEAR-trigger in general. Just mention it, and watch folks freak out...start spewing regurgitated nonsense they've been endlessly fed by MSM.

The healthy joy of experiencing the new and different...of anticipating new opportunities, and learning from them....has been OBLITERATED by the endless thunder of a century of propaganda towards conformity and groupthink and STASIS.

Be PREDICTABLE, Joe and Jane....the system loves its statistical-tools.

So, continue to avoid thinking about CHANGE (boo! ).....procrastinate yet another entire year...

Believe believe believe that the 'authorities' will take care of you because, after all, you're one of the 'good' urban progressive believe-in-gov people....not like those rioters....or even worse, those scary red-state hayseeds!


And so here we are folks....SIX ENTIRE YEARS later....and now right on the fucking EDGE....the edge of that cliff of rapid NONLINEAR socio-economic disruption.

And where are you sitting in relation to that cliff-edge? And in relation to where you were six years ago?

No, I'm not "talking from an ivory-tower"....I'm just -observing-....I'm noting FACTS....perhaps uncomfortable ones, but simple truth nonetheless.

Call me the squawking canary-in-the-coalmine...or the irritating gadfly-of-the-board, that's fine.

I make these observations and point out these facts from only good intentions. I've got no stake in your survival either way. I'd just hate to see some of you wiped off the face of the earth from nothing but an irrational and IMPLANTED fear of changing, moving, adapting....being prepared AHEAD of time.

In any case, everything I've said above is nothing but the plain truth:

- the predictions were made, with evidence to back them up.

- the trends and evidence and numbers were, really, crystal-clear...unmistakeable in their portent.

- the predictions and evidence were incrementally proven; year by year. Nobody can claim that there's been no 'proof' of their validity until just this week/month/year.

- The vast majority have done nothing of substance to CHANGE their very vulnerable situation, towards one that's more survivable for them and their families.

Those are the facts.

From the Gadfly's POV, what I've seen here, instead of the necessary attention to physical security and reduction of dependence on the system, is a MONO-focus on FINANCIAL security; as if that's all it will take to be 'safe' or 'secure'.

Just like yesterday, right? Be well-off, and life lands on your plate for ya.

To me, that's the great FALLACY that likely underpins the ongoing stasis I see, the 'freezing in place'.

There's clearly a dearly-held belief that if one just makes enough 'dollars', one will be OK....just like last year...just like it's always been...

The fallacy of that, is that it's entirely based on a HUGE underlying assumption that has nothing behind it but desperate-belief: that the -system itself- will remain functional to -process- your lovely hoard of dollars....to turn them into accessible food, water, armed-defenders, etc..

Given that most here express a clear understanding that governments in the US today are filled with the incompetent, and led by the inimical, it's simply stunning to -simultaneously- see this blatantly illogical assumptive belief that this very same goobermint 'system' is going to still be functional, AND be friendly to YOU...next year....or the year after...i.e. endlessly into the indefinite future.

There's just no -logic- in such a belief. In fact, EVERY sign and trend points to the exact -opposite-....i.e., to the imminent BREAKDOWN of that very system.

These trends and hard data HAVE pointed exactly this way for the entire six years I've been here (and long before that, but that's not relevant to this post).


So, all I can say is.....it's long past time to THINK....to imagine visually, REALISTICALLY, step by step, even the most MUNDANE aspects of daily life; to visualize HOW you'll accomplish them, and more to the point; CAN you even accomplish them, staying where you are...doing what you've been doing ??

OK, you ardently believe the good-goobermint will send the lily-white Nat-Guard (NOBODY remembers Kent State ???) to the grocery-store and also keep food being trucked there just for you. OK, fine....a wonderful belief.

Now.....how the fawk are YOU going to GET to that store?

AND get your food HOME again? You DID read about the UN-guy carrying food who was torn to bloody shreds by the mob in Haiti a week ago, yes?? Can you seriously believe that humans in NYC, and their hungers and instincts, are any different whatsoever than those in Haiti ??

Or, you keep putting off moving because you think your current school-system has some on-paper superiority that somehow outweighs what a healthier -environment- and more time for attention from parents means to kids learning. OK, that's fine....it's as 'normal' a groundless belief these days as any...

Now, how are your kids going to GET to this so-perfect school system next year? How are they going to SURVIVE in that increasingly-chaotic building? How are they going to avoid abduction, rape, torture, and murder on the way to and from??

Did it ever occur to you that just riding the BUS puts them in danger when social-chaos is worsening? Have you THOUGHT about that bus-ride...its length, its path....where the bottlenecks are....likely centers of trouble it might go by?? You may not have a riot at YOUR street today, but the BUS runs a loop many miles long, doesn't it?

Or, just out of curiosity....what is your PLAN for when a few random mad-dogs fire the lobby in your building? You HAVE been soberly and self-honestly facing these thoughts, in detail, right?

What? The Fire-Dept will rush to the scene and save you?

uhhmm....and how are THEY going to get through the mob, pray tell?

And how can they save your ass when they're tied up putting out the lobby-fire in Joe's building 6 blocks away?

Yeah, you're in deep-shit on the 30th floor, is what. Exactly my point.

You've been thinking LINEARLY....as if all is going to continue as it has been....with only little incremental changes in demand, supply, and all the other conditions in this oh-so-cozy and regimented life; and this womb-like system you're 100% dependent on continuing forever, amen.

Sorry, but life, the universe, and everything, is NOT linear. It just isn't. The life you've gotten used to here in the states truly is an ANOMALY. Call it the great "Linearity Bubble"...

And the Chaos Index is fucking SKYROCKETING. It has been for 5 years. I've pointed to it over and over again. Shit's falling apart...ALL OVER. Not just the big things in the 'news' like an Iraq debacle. I'm talking about increasing low-level but PERVASIVE chaos.....increasing noise in all the signals....parabolic rate-of-rise in 'random' violence....'random' breakdowns....'random' shortages....'random' price-increases...

There's nothing 'random' about 'em.

Anyone pay attention to what Pleio said about Mexico the other night?

35,000 troops actively engaged!

And more to the point....LOSING!!

This is happening in freaking MEXICO....which can hardly be called 'third world'. Right next door...and a hundred-million strong...and coming apart...

Chaos, dude....it's here to stay....it's in YOUR neighborhood now too...and it's settling in, and breeding...because that's what chaos does when the inimical are in charge...it BREEDS MORE CHAOS....

Demand for services WILL rise, and rise NON-linearly as the lobbies begin getting fired. Take a moment to PICTURE that desk at the Fire-Station....those phones ringing and ringing and ringing....not even getting -answered-, let alone getting a truck or ambulance dispatched to YOUR building.

THAT'S the imagery you've GOT to get into your heads....not last year's picture...NEXT year's picture. "Plan" goes with "Next", not with "Last".

Availability of services WILL drop like a rock, as firemen simply can't GET to the station....and as the firetrucks suffer their normal occasional failures but the parts DIDN'T just show up on UPS as usual...."little" chaotics, remember?

Millions of LITTLE things make up the daily functioning of your 'system'. It's rarely realized that all of these are fragile, and vulnerable to the SAME forces. Which means that, statistically, they will ALL start failing at the SAME time. A massive PILEUP of fuckups and mini-disasters morphing into one huge ball of ongoing rolling-disruption breeding ever more disaster.

That's NON linear....that's the Achilles-heel of the 'system' that you're so fond of...and so terribly, frighteningly, DEPENDENT upon. THAT'S what we're on the edge of right now, this week, this year.


So it's long past time to THINK things through, and THOROUGHLY. It's clear from numerous posts here that the non-plan to just freeze in place is based on MYRIAD erroneous assumptions, gaps of logic, and failure to consider mundane aspects of daily existence which will change literally overnight with one good-sized riot...or the sudden failure of a single large trucking-company...or...or...or ANY ONE of a MILLION other possibilities.

That sensitivity to a single seemingly not-so-critical trigger-event sending things 'over the edge' is INHERENT in the non-failsafe, non-redundant, linear-based presumptions that your life-support (literally) system is put together with.

That's the way chaos WORKS for goddsakes...this isn't paranoia...this is the -proven mathematics- of large systems. A single event setting off a chain of ever-increasing size and energy successional events IS the way the universe works.

ps; ref. Greece, right now, as reported not 48 hrs ago by Libertas. And that's just from a stupid -strike-....the riots and fires and killings haven't even begun yet. Just wait til they do, and see how easy it is to get what you need. And ps; Greece ain't a 3rd-world country either.


Well, by now you're either rejecting this as stupid and overblown....or you're starting to think seriously about it...so for anyone still paying attention, here's another little aspect that I think you procrastinators have been kidding yourselves BIG-time about....I've seen your posts...heard your 'plans'....and I can only shake my head in sadness at your continuing self-delusion...

One little executive-order, one proclamation OUT OF THE BLUE from ANY of the many 'leaders' at any level; and you're freaking STUCK pal.

Yup...that's yet another BIG assumption y'all are making...FOOLISHLY....that the goobermint will LET you run out of town at the last second.

You think so? Then you have NOT been paying attention to REALITY...to PROVABLE history, and some quite recent, at that. Their first and foremost reaction is, and has always been: LOCKDOWN.

ref. New Orleans. READ about it....they locked folks IN...at gunpoint. The helpful Nat-Guard and Army, remember? They did NOT let the Red-Cross in either. I found that last little tidbit particularly interesting...new and different...

And that was when the entire rest of the country was fine. Now think about it with WIDESPREAD chaos and disorder as the background instead....

And you think they're gonna let you blithely pack the car, buy some $20/gal gas, dodge a few riots-in-progress, and head on up to the Adirondacks ???

You can't POSSIBLY believe something that silly....that far skewed from actual events happening all around you.....but you do!!

That's the amazing part....y'all obviously DO believe just that....or you wouldn't still be sitting on your ass. Or, more likely, you've been avoiding EXAMINING the issue closely enough to HAVE to admit to yourself that your fantasy 'plans' are just that, a silly fantasy....a tissue of sheer nonsense not even CLOSE to reality.


I suggest having a sit-down heart to heart with the sig-other this weekend, and facing self-honestly for once, with that yoke of fear-conditioning deliberately thrown off, the question of just how important those important-by-long-repeated-mantra things (like 'career') REALLY are....

....compared to, say, "staying alive" for example.

...or at least keeping your kids alive and healthy, even if you're too conditioned and sheep-like to leave the vicinity of the now-lava-spewing volcano for your own sake.

a.k.a.: "Honey, what's WRONG with early 'retirement' anyway?"


well, I hope this stream-of-consciousness was semi-coherent....no time to edit to a kinder-and-gentler 2nd draft today....company due in 10 minutes...

hey, in all sincerity, best luck to everyone in what's coming....please start facing it squarely...and start picturing it REALISTICALLY...in terms of daily actions, daily needs, examining the choke-points, recognizing that 'escaping' AFTER the shit hits the fan is just plain fantasy, etc..]]> http://indexcalls.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=1620 Wed, 09 Apr 2008 05:16:28 +0000 Wednesday April 9 http://indexcalls.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=1579 Fri, 11 Apr 2008 03:50:17 +0000 Thursday April 10 [attachmentid=29239]
]]> http://indexcalls.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=1578 Tue, 15 Jan 2008 06:10:28 +0000 Monday Jan 14 [attachmentid=26703]
]]> http://indexcalls.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=1485 Wed, 09 Jan 2008 08:24:40 +0000 Wed Jan 09
It's Ali......?
[attachmentid=26509]]]> http://indexcalls.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=1478 Tue, 18 Dec 2007 07:43:55 +0000 Monday Dec 17 [attachmentid=25985]
]]> http://indexcalls.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=1454 Sat, 27 Oct 2007 23:42:59 +0000 Oct 27 - Oct 28 [attachmentid=24404]]]> http://indexcalls.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=1397 Wed, 24 Oct 2007 10:25:12 +0000 Wednesday October 24
The reality is "normalcy" in the RE markets will merely be a sign post on the way down like looking out the train window and watching a small station slip past your view. The fact remains that there are at least 5 million vacant homes in the US. The fact remains that in all probability by the time the rinse cycle has begun there will have been over 5 million homes foreclosed on and taken back by the banks. Those two factors alone mean that prices will fall hard over a long period of time and stay down for the foreseeable future as the boomers totter off into the sunset trapped in their energy sucking McMansions that have no buyers.

We have lived on borrowed money (and time) for far too long. When I say we, I refer not just to the US as this has been a global phenomenon. Borrowing and spending on either consumer goods or malinvestments in plant and equipment which has given us a global glut in production capacity just in time for the demand withdrawal.

I caught a snippet of a story on razor blade production. They showed a huge plant churning out millions of disposable razors (per minute one assumes) and the spokesman was walking about pointing out various aspects of production. This is a huge facility stuffed full of machinery. There was one thing missing. There were no people. None - nada - zippo. Oh sure hiding in some room tucked in a corner somewhere there has to be a few people tending to the machines, but otherwise the whole process from start to finish required no people to actually produce the product.
And that's a big part of our societal problems world wide. Due to mechanization the percentage of the global population required to produce what we consume is quite small. A few produce everything that is needed or desired. The rest of us must do busy work and consume. It has been pretty much the same thing we saw with agriculture at the turn of the last century where we went from 20+% of the population growing food to the current low single digits producing all of our food.

You almost have to laugh at the pathetic "bail-outs" popping up all over the financial realm. The MLEC "super fund" is nothing other than a few banks trying to cover their asses with other people's money. That one is effectively DOA. The latest "refinance" gambit by Cuntrywide - $16 Billion - sounds like a big deal but against a backdrop or $1.5 trillion in pending resets it suddenly looks futile. And who's to say how many refis Cuntrywide will actually do? Will they loan $500,000 on a house now worth $350,000 (and going down daily) ? Will they refi at 4% fixed in order to get the monthly payment low enough (even though that would still make them unaffordable on an income to debt ratio) that Jose and Juanita can stay in the house for a few more months?

The resets coming in option ARMS will be devastating - these folks not only have not been paying any principal - most haven't even been paying the artificially low interest only, choosing instead to make the minimum payment (likely the way they were qualified). Their principal balances have been growing while the value of their property has been going the other direction. How much fun will that be?

There won't be a single day that can be looked back on and determined to be the day it all fell apart. It is dissolving in front of our very eyes. Like a glacier melting, you don't notice it by standing there and looking at it day after day. But if you take a picture and compare it to the glacier a year later you can easily see the retreat.

This whole mess is coming down and hard. US first and then like dominoes stood too close to each other, one by one we all fall down.]]> http://indexcalls.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=1395 Thu, 25 Oct 2007 11:48:06 +0000 Thursday October 25
There's no other possible explanation.

Treasury spokespeople support a strong dollar
Oil is abiotic and replicates underground
Gold is a barbaric relic of terrorists
The market is a price discovery mechanism based on fundamentals
The government does not intervene in the markets.

Soooooooo

The rallies come from outer space ]]> http://indexcalls.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=1394 Fri, 26 Oct 2007 14:15:44 +0000 Friday October 26 QUOTE(libertas @ Oct 26 2007, 09:11 AM)
I am always careful.

Not necessarily correct, of course. But I don't buy the "Zimbabwe dollar" theory. This is a credit bubble, and when you destroy credit you destroy money. Or liquidity, if you want to call it that.
[/right]


The lost credit can be (at least partly) replaced by direct monetization of government bonds, at the cost of the purchasing power of the currency. Seems to be what they are trying to do right now.

Whether they can get the credit to where it is needed, now that is a different story.]]> http://indexcalls.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=1393 Wed, 17 Oct 2007 12:05:02 +0000 Wednesday Oct 17

Last night I realized something: The stock market has passed from reality into myth: that is, it is no longer an indicator of how well off we are, but a symbol of how well off we are, exactly the same way Bush is not a strong leader but a symbol of a strong leader. When we ask, "are we in a depression yet?" we look to the stock market, because the Myth says "depression = stock market crash."

So I'm going to go out on a limb and say the stock market will never crash. More precisely, the Dow Jones number will never be seen to take a big fall. They won't let it! Because "they" understand the propaganda value of the Dow, they will find a way to keep it rising forever, or until no one cares. One way they'll do it is by companies buying back their stocks, which the oil companies are already doing, thus raising the price by reducing supply. Another way is through hyperinflation, which the Federal Reserve has been working on for years by printing mountains of new money.

So in five or ten more years, when a gallon of milk costs $400, and we're squatting in abandoned suburbs and eating dogs, Fox News and NPR will still recite the hourly magic spell: "Today the Dow Jones hit an all time high of 156,000..." And those who are caught in the spell will think, "The economy is doing better than ever -- if I work even harder I can get a piece of it."

http://www.signs-of-the-times.org/articles...15+October+2007
]]> http://indexcalls.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=1383